"The 5-Year Anniversary of Chaos”
It’s a unique quirk of humanity that the further removed we are from major historical events, the more mundane they seem to have been.
Even just five years ago feels like a lifetime ago, but it was a wild time. Today, I want to offer a very brief review of the COVID crash as I believe there are a few lessons that might help us endure our current environment.
While hindsight opinions differ wildly, the world was largely in panic mode around this time in 2020. The market turbulence began in February 2020, as we experienced the fastest correction (a decline of 10%) from an all-time high[1]in our market's history, which was almost immediately followed by the fastest bear market in our history[2].
By the time the professional sports leagues[3] paused their seasons in early March, true panic hit the markets because it was clear that the entire global economy was about to shut down.
Within the literal span of a few days, life as we knew it was upended.
Naturally, fear roiled the markets, so much so that March 12th was dubbed Black Thursday as the market fell by nearly 10%. Then, just two trading days later, on March 16th (another “Black Monday” to rival 1987), the market fell by 13%, furthering the panic.
From top to bottom, the market collapsed, declining 34% in just 33 days[2+4].
I'm not sure there’s been a time in recent memory that included more uncertainty or fear than we experienced in March 2020[5]. As true as that is, it’s nearly impossible to recapture the emotions or communicate the fear that was present at that moment. It was chaos.
But this chaos makes what happened next so surprising. On March 23rd, stocks bottomed. While we were all busy trying to wrap our heads around what was happening, the market was about to begin one of the most incredible recoveries in history.
Comfort and clarity felt miles away, yet the rebound was underway. It was so unexpected that some investors called the recovery “the most hated bull market ever” because so many people missed it.
Aside from this being an interesting review of some dark days in our recent past, why revisit these events today? In short, because I believe there are few lessons that we can apply in today's environment, as volatility and fear are rising again.
First, a high level of market uncertainty tells us surprisingly little about what the market will do next. One major lesson from 2020 is that even amid the most incredible feelings of uncertainty and fear, the market can, and often does, surprise us.
Second, we don't need to know what will happen to be prepared for all that could happen. We didn’t need to know back then, and don’t need to know now. The whole point of planning is to prepare and adapt to our ever-changing world.
We should also remember that whatever President Trump does next or whatever economic calamity seems to be looming, the management teams of the world’s great companies will also adapt as things change to best position themselves for success. That’s what they are paid to do.
Third, 2020, 2022, and today make it obvious that being a permanent owner of equities will sometimes be uncomfortable, but it remains the only way I know to guarantee that we earn the full return that these companies have to offer[6]. And, historically speaking, those returns have been worth the discomfort.
Lastly, and along those same lines, every period of volatility we’ve endured over our lifetimes—no matter how dire it may have initially appeared—is rightly viewed today as an opportunity to buy.
To be clear, buying during volatile periods may feel foolish in the moment, but buyers have ultimately been rewarded every single time. And if you are a long-term investor, this is how I believe we should think about all volatility—as an opportunity to buy, since that is what it has historically always been.
So, as we consider today’s wild market environment, I hope you’ll process it through these lessons from history. I suspect in a few years’ time, we’ll be glad we did.
[1] This, and all other market data in this note (unless otherwise cited), is (are) from this Wikipedia page that recounts the entire COVID market episode. It’s a great read if you’re interested.
[2] Reuters
[3] Professional sports shut down
[4] S&P Chart – St. Louis Fed
[5] While this is debatable, I believe the only two comparable events over the last few decades would have been the depths of the Great Financial Crisis or 9/11.
[6] Less transaction costs, fees, taxes, etc…